Muddy Waters is short DNMR.  365平台APP下载的结论是,DNMR严重歪曲了客户关系的状态, product development, readiness to scale, and TAM for PHAs.  Both the money that DNMR spent buying Novomer and the cash it intends to spend on capacity expansion strike us as Hail Marys – spending money based on hope rather than on realism.

    • 与众多其他太空公司一样,DNMR严重歪曲了其业务状况.  DNMR makes highly misleading claims, such as having over $200 million of take or pay agreements just waiting for DNMR to add capacity; that DNMR can sell all the PHA it makes today; and that its PHA TAM is 500 billion pounds.
    • What DNMR can produce seems to have limited demand, which is in stark contrast to CEO Stephen Croskrey’s pronouncement that DNMR can sell all the PHA it produces and the company’s claim that it is “fully sold-out of [2022E] Kentucky capacity from overwhelming customer demand”. Instead, DNMR似乎无法为具有巨大潜在市场的产品制造PHA.  DNMR has likely not produced PHA for products sold to end users, other than straws and possibly plastic shopping bags.
    • Supporting our conclusion that demand for DNMR’s existing products seems quite weak are DNMR’s apparent significant (but below the radar) PHA production misses in each of Q1 and Q2 this year.  Using company favorable assumptions, 365平台APP下载估计,DNMR目前的运营水平仅为其总容量的28%左右, rather than the expected 50%.   虽然公司的假设不那么有利,但仍是合理的,估计产能仅为18%.  Moreover, DNMR’s slow-turning inventory (~3x) consistently shows zero to de minimis amounts of work in process while having material balances of both raw materials and finished goods, 365平台APP下载认为这表明对DNMR能够生产的产品没有太多的需求.  这种担忧的一个子集是,由于生产问题,DNMR可能会生产大量不可销售的产品.
    • The PHA products for which there could be significant demand, such as potato chip bags and candy wrappers, 无论DNMR是否增加产能,都远远超出了其在不久的将来实现规模化经济生产的技术能力.  管理层大肆吹嘘DNMR已经实现了塑料行业的“圣杯”.  Yet, DNMR似乎还没有解决将PHA商业化所需的众多技术难题.  One has to wonder why so many established companies have eschewed acquiring this supposed Holy Grail prior to its having gone public during the Great SPAC Orgy of 2020.
    • DNMR has greatly misled investors about its partnerships.  When DNMR went public, Mr. Croskrey在CNBC上表示,该公司“有超过2亿美元的接受或支付协议, and we had customers like PepsiCo, Nestlé, Bacardi, you know, expecting us to be able to grow our capacity, so we had to find a way to find a lot of cash fast.“365平台APP下载相信,DNMR希望为这些合作伙伴生产的产品正处于非常早期的开发阶段, 而产能对这些产品来说根本不是问题.  据报道,如果DNMR无法开发出满足客户需求的产品,这些所谓的“接受或支付”协议将对客户产生不利影响.  Moreover, we understand that the PepsiCo take or pay was for pilot plant scale, DNMR可能还没有与百事公司达成商业规模的协议.  We also understand that Mars Wrigley will likely not be using in scale a DNMR plastics wrapper before 2025 – if ever; and, 百事公司可能还需要很多年(如果可能的话)才能从DNMR购买大量PHA复合材料.
    • We consider DNMR amateurish when it comes to production.  DNMR’s ever-shifting plans for capacity give us the impression that it’s throwing a Hail Mary – building expensive capacity to make products that DNMR has not even shown that it can produce economically.  365平台APP下载计算了DNMR在上市8个月内的4次扩张计划.  这包括DNMR针对Novomer的两个版本的生产计划(对此365平台APP下载质疑DNMR的尽职调查).  The latest iteration of DNMR’s plan appears to be greatly misleading, 据称,将计划的产能从之前的每年3.15亿英镑增加到3.9亿英镑, all for less money!  除了DNMR在新计划下似乎是在拿苹果和橘子做比较, its nameplate capacity only adds up to 250 million PPY.  In other words, the new plan is less capacity for less money.
    • DNMR365平台产能的误导性陈述不仅仅是SPAC的狂欢行为——它甚至在2015年就对产能进行了错误的陈述.  At that time, DNMR制作了一段视频,突出介绍了其现任首席技术官和首席运营官, while the then-CEO made the claim that the Bainbridge, Georgia plant had a PHA nameplate capacity of 60 million PPY. DNMR now refers to Bainbridge as a “PHA demonstration plant.”
    • DNMR似乎在掩盖将任何新工厂提升到“商业规模”的困难.e., 75% of capacity).  One bioplastics production veteran stated that it can take teams without commercial-scale production experience five to seven years to bring a PLA production facility to commercial scale.  他认为,扩大PHA的生产规模要比扩大PLA的生产困难得多:增加的困难可能会推迟时间.  The challenge of scaling PHA production is apparently one of the reasons why Archer-Daniels-Midland and Metobolix ended up selling their PHA business for $10 million after having invested over $300 million in a production facility.
    • Novomer的收购并不能缓解365平台APP下载对DNMR缺乏经验和随意的生产方式的担忧.  Rather, 此次收购表明,DNMR担心其发酵技术不会像之前认为的那样规模化或发挥作用.  Despite Novomer having been in operation for many years, its pilot plant reportedly produces only a few pounds per day.  Novomer’s production facility is reportedly a small demonstration unit, 而且,该公司显然还没有为一家商业规模的工厂测试其生产流程.  365平台APP下载的印象是,当DNMR获得它时,Novomer正在使用生命维持系统.
    • 对Novomer的收购,与其说是一次精心构思的战略行动,不如说是一场敷衍的万福玛利亚式的宣传.   这实际上是押注于一项尚未被大规模验证的技术.  Novomer would make up 30% of product formulations at best, 在365平台APP下载看来,这只是不断变化的生产计划中的另一个变化.  More problematically, Novomer appears to have been hollowed out of staff post-acquisition, while foundational patents in the portfolio have expired.  一个全面的生产设施可能需要位于石油来源附近, which would belie DNMR’s green narrative.  In fact, 可再生的环氧乙烷和一氧化碳原料似乎过于稀缺和昂贵, and DNMR appears to have excluded them from the latest plan.
  • Putting these company-specific issues aside, 365平台APP下载认为,DNMR声称“通过DNMR可以消除5000亿磅塑料垃圾”是非常具有误导性的. 看涨的投资者认为,DNMR的TAM价值为1万亿美元,365平台APP下载认为这是一种妄想.  一个更现实的TAM为基于pha的包装似乎是40亿到50亿美元.  回收塑料,从塑料中的碳氢化合物中回收储存的能量,比pha更接近于“圣杯”.  Bioplastics cause negative externalities, 例如增加消费者乱扔垃圾和使混合塑料难以回收.  Instead, bioplastics seem best suited for targeted solutions, which likely fall far, 远低于DNMR声称可以替代的5000亿吨塑料.

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